League Two odds

Exeter City are 12th in League Two with 19 points from 14 games, and come into this in good form, with 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats in their last 5. Cheltenham Town are 5th on 21 points and struggling for results (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 0.3 a game. On the road, Cheltenham Town score 1.3 and concede 2.1.

On expected goals, Exeter City create 1.08 and allow 1.11 a game; Cheltenham Town create 1.07 and allow 1.61. Exeter City are creating more than they're scoring, so their goals could pick up. Cheltenham Town are scoring more than their chances suggest, which tends not to last.

Our model expects about 1.5 goals to 0.8, with both teams scoring 44% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Exeter City 51%, the draw 27%, Cheltenham Town 22%, and over 2.5 goals 46%.

For corners, we expect around 9.3 in total: Exeter City about 5.2 and Cheltenham Town about 4.1.

Our view: the best prices are close to our fair odds, so we don't see standout value. The nearest is Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 against our 5/6.

Port Vale are 19th in League Two with 15 points from 12 games, and come into this in good form, with 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats in their last 5. Accrington Stanley are 9th on 19 points and in mixed form (2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Port Vale score 1.3 and concede 0.5 a game. On the road, Accrington Stanley score 1.4 and concede 1.3.

On expected goals, Port Vale create 1.30 and allow 1.02 a game; Accrington Stanley create 1.42 and allow 1.14. Port Vale are creating more than they're scoring, so their goals could pick up. Accrington Stanley are scoring more than their chances suggest, which tends not to last.

Our model expects about 1.5 goals to 0.9, with both teams scoring 47% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Port Vale 49%, the draw 28%, Accrington Stanley 24%, and over 2.5 goals 45%.

For corners, we expect around 9.3 in total: Port Vale about 4.7 and Accrington Stanley about 4.6.

Our view: the best prices are close to our fair odds, so we don't see standout value. The nearest is Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 against our 5/6.

Walsall are 3rd in League Two with 22 points from 13 games, and come into this in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in their last 5. Barnet are 2nd on 26 points and in mixed form (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Walsall score 1.7 and concede 1.0 a game. On the road, Barnet score 2.2 and concede 1.3.

On expected goals, Walsall create 1.56 and allow 1.60 a game; Barnet create 1.72 and allow 1.30. Barnet are scoring more than their chances suggest, which tends not to last.

They last met on 7 February 2026, finishing Walsall 1–3 Barnet.

Our model expects about 1.5 goals to 1.5, with both teams scoring 61% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Walsall 35%, the draw 26%, Barnet 39%, and over 2.5 goals 58%.

For corners, we expect around 10.1 in total: Walsall about 5.2 and Barnet about 4.9.

Our view: the best prices are close to our fair odds, so we don't see standout value. The nearest is Walsall to win at 15/8 against our 15/8.

Bristol Rovers are 17th in League Two with 16 points from 14 games, and come into this on a poor run, with 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5. Chesterfield FC are 10th on 19 points and in mixed form (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Bristol Rovers score 1.6 and concede 1.1 a game. On the road, Chesterfield FC score 1.1 and concede 1.7.

On expected goals, Bristol Rovers create 1.65 and allow 1.29 a game; Chesterfield FC create 1.71 and allow 1.01. Bristol Rovers are creating more than they're scoring, so their goals could pick up.

They last met on 7 February 2026, finishing Bristol Rvs 2–3 Chesterfield.

Our model expects about 1.7 goals to 1.2, with both teams scoring 58% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Bristol Rovers 39%, the draw 26%, Chesterfield FC 34%, and over 2.5 goals 55%.

For corners, we expect around 8.2 in total: Bristol Rovers about 4.2 and Chesterfield FC about 4.0.

Where we see value: Bristol Rovers to win. We make the fair price 6/4, and Betfair Sportsbook offer 2/1, about 18% above our number. Value bets still lose often; it's about the price over many bets, not this one result.

Colchester United are 23rd in League Two with 12 points from 13 games, and come into this struggling for results, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5. Gillingham are 8th on 20 points and in mixed form (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Colchester United score 1.0 and concede 1.0 a game. On the road, Gillingham score 1.7 and concede 1.4.

On expected goals, Colchester United create 1.18 and allow 1.47 a game; Gillingham create 1.15 and allow 1.40. Colchester United are creating more than they're scoring, so their goals could pick up. Gillingham are scoring more than their chances suggest, which tends not to last.

They last met on 29 December 2025, finishing Gillingham 1–1 Colchester.

Our model expects about 1.4 goals to 1.2, with both teams scoring 52% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Colchester United 43%, the draw 28%, Gillingham 30%, and over 2.5 goals 48%.

For corners, we expect around 9.4 in total: Colchester United about 6.2 and Gillingham about 3.2.

Our view: the best prices are close to our fair odds, so we don't see standout value. The nearest is Gillingham to win at 12/5 against our 12/5.

Rotherham United are 22nd in League Two with 12 points from 14 games, and come into this struggling for results, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5. Crawley Town are 24th on 9 points and in mixed form (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Rotherham United score 1.9 and concede 2.1 a game. On the road, Crawley Town score 1.2 and concede 1.5.

On expected goals, Rotherham United create 1.29 and allow 1.37 a game; Crawley Town create 1.35 and allow 1.71. Crawley Town are creating more than they're scoring, so their goals could pick up.

Our model expects about 1.6 goals to 1.7, with both teams scoring 66% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Rotherham United 43%, the draw 25%, Crawley Town 32%, and over 2.5 goals 60%.

For corners, we expect around 7.6 in total: Rotherham United about 3.6 and Crawley Town about 4.0.

Where we see value: Crawley Town to win. We make the fair price 85/40, and Virgin Bet offer 5/2, about 13% above our number. Value bets still lose often; it's about the price over many bets, not this one result.

Crewe Alexandra are 4th in League Two with 22 points from 14 games, and come into this in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5. Newport County are 14th on 18 points and in mixed form (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Crewe Alexandra score 1.7 and concede 1.1 a game. On the road, Newport County score 0.9 and concede 1.6.

On expected goals, Crewe Alexandra create 1.07 and allow 1.26 a game; Newport County create 1.10 and allow 1.20. Newport County are scoring more than their chances suggest, which tends not to last.

They last met on 29 December 2025, finishing Newport County 2–0 Crewe.

Our model expects about 1.4 goals to 1.1, with both teams scoring 51% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Crewe Alexandra 45%, the draw 28%, Newport County 27%, and over 2.5 goals 48%.

For corners, we expect around 8.6 in total: Crewe Alexandra about 4.7 and Newport County about 3.9.

Our view: the best prices are close to our fair odds, so we don't see standout value. The nearest is Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 against our 10/11.

Swindon Town are 13th in League Two with 19 points from 14 games, and come into this in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in their last 5. Grimsby Town are 6th on 20 points and in mixed form (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Swindon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.0 a game. On the road, Grimsby Town score 1.6 and concede 1.4.

On expected goals, Swindon Town create 1.26 and allow 1.62 a game; Grimsby Town create 2.02 and allow 1.24. Grimsby Town are creating more than they're scoring, so their goals could pick up.

They last met on 25 April 2026, finishing Grimsby 4–0 Swindon.

Our model expects about 1.6 goals to 1.4, with both teams scoring 60% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Swindon Town 34%, the draw 26%, Grimsby Town 40%, and over 2.5 goals 58%.

For corners, we expect around 11.3 in total: Swindon Town about 5.4 and Grimsby Town about 5.9.

Where we see value: Swindon Town to win. We make the fair price 2/1, and Betway offer 9/4, about 12% above our number. Value bets still lose often; it's about the price over many bets, not this one result.

Salford City are 1st in League Two with 31 points from 14 games, and come into this in excellent form, with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5. Northampton Town are 21st on 14 points and in mixed form (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Salford City score 1.3 and concede 0.6 a game. On the road, Northampton Town score 0.8 and concede 1.0.

On expected goals, Salford City create 1.23 and allow 1.05 a game; Northampton Town create 0.81 and allow 1.15. Salford City are scoring more than their chances suggest, which tends not to last.

Our model expects about 1.2 goals to 0.7, with both teams scoring 38% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Salford City 53%, the draw 27%, Northampton Town 20%, and over 2.5 goals 43%.

For corners, we expect around 10.2 in total: Salford City about 6.0 and Northampton Town about 4.3.

Where we see value: Under 2.5 goals. We make the fair price 8/11, and Grosvenor Sport offer 10/11, about 10% above our number. Value bets still lose often; it's about the price over many bets, not this one result.

Shrewsbury Town are 15th in League Two with 18 points from 14 games, and come into this in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5. Oldham Athletic are 18th on 15 points and in mixed form (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Shrewsbury Town score 1.1 and concede 1.1 a game. On the road, Oldham Athletic score 0.6 and concede 1.6.

On expected goals, Shrewsbury Town create 1.47 and allow 1.05 a game; Oldham Athletic create 1.40 and allow 1.27. Shrewsbury Town are creating more than they're scoring, so their goals could pick up. Oldham Athletic are creating more than they're scoring, so their goals could pick up.

They last met on 11 April 2026, finishing Shrewsbury 1–0 Oldham.

Our model expects about 1.4 goals to 1.1, with both teams scoring 50% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Shrewsbury Town 39%, the draw 29%, Oldham Athletic 33%, and over 2.5 goals 47%.

For corners, we expect around 10.1 in total: Shrewsbury Town about 5.8 and Oldham Athletic about 4.3.

Our view: the best prices are close to our fair odds, so we don't see standout value. The nearest is Shrewsbury Town to win at 13/8 against our 13/8.

Rochdale are 20th in League Two with 15 points from 14 games, and come into this struggling for results, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5. York City are 7th on 20 points and in mixed form (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9 a game. On the road, York City score 1.1 and concede 2.3.

On expected goals, Rochdale create 0.79 and allow 1.83 a game; York City create 1.68 and allow 1.19. Rochdale are scoring more than their chances suggest, which tends not to last.

They last met on 25 April 2026, finishing Rochdale 1–1 York.

Our model expects about 1.4 goals to 1.7, with both teams scoring 64% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Rochdale 27%, the draw 24%, York City 49%, and over 2.5 goals 60%.

For corners, we expect around 10.0 in total: Rochdale about 4.9 and York City about 5.1.

Where we see value: Rochdale to win. We make the fair price 11/4, and Unibet offer 16/5, about 13% above our number. Value bets still lose often; it's about the price over many bets, not this one result.

Fleetwood Town are 16th in League Two with 17 points from 14 games, and come into this in mixed form, with 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5. Tranmere Rovers are 11th on 19 points and in mixed form (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in their last 5).

At home, Fleetwood Town score 1.4 and concede 0.7 a game. On the road, Tranmere Rovers score 1.0 and concede 1.4.

On expected goals, Fleetwood Town create 1.24 and allow 1.40 a game; Tranmere Rovers create 1.12 and allow 1.39. Tranmere Rovers are scoring more than their chances suggest, which tends not to last.

They last met on 14 March 2026, finishing Fleetwood Town 0–0 Tranmere.

Our model expects about 1.4 goals to 0.8, with both teams scoring 43% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Fleetwood Town 48%, the draw 28%, Tranmere Rovers 25%, and over 2.5 goals 47%.

For corners, we expect around 10.8 in total: Fleetwood Town about 6.6 and Tranmere Rovers about 4.3.

Where we see value: Under 2.5 goals. We make the fair price 10/11, and Grosvenor Sport offer Evs, about 5% above our number. Value bets still lose often; it's about the price over many bets, not this one result.