| Bookmaker · book % | Salford | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet 106.4% | 8/13 | 3/1 | 4/1 |
| Coral 105.5% | 4/6 | 3/1 | 4/1 |
| Virgin Bet 106.6% | 8/13 | 11/4 | 4/1 |
| BoyleSports 109.0% | 8/15 | 11/4 | 9/2 |
| Betfair Sportsbook 107.4% | 8/13 | 3/1 | 4/1 |
| Ladbrokes 106.4% | 4/6 | 3/1 | 4/1 |
| Betway 109.1% | 4/7 | 11/4 | 4/1 |
| Paddy Power 108.0% | 8/13 | 11/4 | 4/1 |
| LeoVegas 108.5% | 8/13 | 11/4 | 4/1 |
| Betfred 109.2% | 8/13 | 11/4 | 4/1 |
| William Hill 108.4% | 4/6 | 13/5 | 4/1 |
| Sky Bet 109.2% | 8/13 | 11/4 | 4/1 |
| Casumo 109.5% | 8/13 | 13/5 | 4/1 |
| 888sport 109.2% | 4/6 | 13/5 | 4/1 |
| LiveScore Bet 111.5% | 4/7 | 13/5 | 4/1 |
| Grosvenor Sport 111.5% | 4/7 | 13/5 | 4/1 |
| BetVictor 112.2% | 8/15 | 11/4 | 7/2 |
| Exchanges · price after commission not counted in best price | |||
| Smarkets 2% comm. | 4/7back 1.57 · lay 1.67 | 11/4back 3.85 · lay 4.50 | 5/1back 6.20 · lay 7.40 |
| Matchbook 2% comm. | 4/7back 1.59 · lay 1.68 | 11/4back 3.85 · lay 4.40 | 11/2back 6.40 · lay 7.40 |
| Betfair ExchangePrice only 5% comm. | 8/15back 1.58 · lay 1.67 | 11/4back 3.95 · lay 4.50 | 5/1back 6.40 · lay 7.60 |
| Best price | 4/6 Coral | 3/1 Unibet | 9/2 BoyleSports |
| Our fair price | 10/1153% chanceValue +0% | 13/527% chanceValue +6% | 4/120% chanceValue +9% |
| Bookmaker · book % | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Grosvenor Sport 107.7% | 4/5 | 10/11 |
| William Hill 108.1% | 5/6 | 5/6 |
| Casumo 109.6% | 5/6 | 4/5 |
| LeoVegas 109.6% | 4/5 | 5/6 |
| Exchanges · price after commission not counted in best price | ||
| Matchbook 2% comm. | 10/11back 1.95 | 10/11back 1.92 |
| Best price | 5/6 William Hill | 10/11 Grosvenor Sport |
| Our fair price | 11/843% chanceValue +0% | 8/1157% chanceValue +10% |
We expect about 10.2 corners: Salford 6.0, Northampton 4.3.
Our fair price for over 10.5 corners is 5/4 (45%) and under 10.5 is 4/5 (55%).
Bookmaker corners prices are checked once, the day before kick-off, and will appear here.
Match preview
Salford City are 1st in League Two with 31 points from 14 games, and come into this in excellent form, with 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5. Northampton Town are 21st on 14 points and in mixed form (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5).
At home, Salford City score 1.3 and concede 0.6 a game. On the road, Northampton Town score 0.8 and concede 1.0.
On expected goals, Salford City create 1.23 and allow 1.05 a game; Northampton Town create 0.81 and allow 1.15. Salford City are scoring more than their chances suggest, which tends not to last.
Our model expects about 1.2 goals to 0.7, with both teams scoring 38% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Salford City 53%, the draw 27%, Northampton Town 20%, and over 2.5 goals 43%.
For corners, we expect around 10.2 in total: Salford City about 6.0 and Northampton Town about 4.3.
Where we see value: Under 2.5 goals. We make the fair price 8/11, and Grosvenor Sport offer 10/11, about 10% above our number. Value bets still lose often; it's about the price over many bets, not this one result.