About Lower League Price Finder

We compare odds on League One and League Two football across UK-licensed bookmakers and betting exchanges, and add things the big comparison sites don't: a fair price for every outcome, proper stats, and a written preview of every game.

How our fair prices work

For each team we look at expected goals (xG) and actual goals, for and against, this season, separately at home and away, and compare them with the league average. xG measures the quality of chances, so it's a steadier guide to how good a team is than goals alone. Early in the season we blend in more of the league average, so a couple of freak results don't swing the numbers. From that we estimate how many goals each side is likely to score and turn it into a chance for each result.

Bookmakers know things our model doesn't, so we don't use the model on its own. Our fair price is 40% our model and 60% the average of the bookmakers' prices with their margin taken out. That way we only flag value where the stats point clearly one way and the best price is still generous.

Corners work the same way: we use each side's corners won and conceded at home and away to estimate the total, and blend that with the bookmakers' prices. Corners odds are checked once, the day before each game.

It's a simple model. It doesn't know about injuries, suspensions, new managers or rotated squads. When the best bookmaker price is at least 5% above our fair price we flag it as value, but only once both teams have played 6 league games. A value price is one that should pay off over many bets if our numbers are right; individual value bets lose often.

How we make money

Right now we don't earn anything from this site. In future some links may become affiliate links, which would be marked #ad. The order of bookmakers in our tables will always be set by price, never by who pays us.

Where the data comes from

Odds come from The Odds API and are refreshed at least twice a day, and three times on Tuesdays and Saturdays. Corners odds are checked once per game, the day before. Results and match statistics come from football-data.co.uk. We list UK-licensed operators only: Unibet, Betway, Coral, BetVictor, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Betfred, Betfair Sportsbook, 888sport, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, BoyleSports, LiveScore Bet, Virgin Bet, Grosvenor Sport, LeoVegas, Casumo, plus the exchanges Smarkets, Matchbook, Betfair Exchange.

Who runs this site

Lower League Price Finder is an independent site.

This site is for over-18s only and is not aimed at anyone under 18.