| Bookmaker · book % | Rotherham | Draw | Crawley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet 107.0% | Evs | 13/5 | 5/2 |
| Grosvenor Sport 111.6% | 10/11 | 5/2 | 12/5 |
| LiveScore Bet 112.0% | 10/11 | 5/2 | 12/5 |
| Best price | Evs Virgin Bet | 13/5 Virgin Bet | 5/2 Virgin Bet |
| Our fair price | 11/843% chanceValue +0% | 3/125% chanceValue +0% | 85/4032% chanceValue +13% |
| Bookmaker · book % | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Grosvenor Sport 107.7% | 8/13 | 11/10 |
| Best price | 8/13 Grosvenor Sport | 11/10 Grosvenor Sport |
| Our fair price | 4/660% chanceValue +0% | 6/440% chanceValue +0% |
We expect about 7.6 corners: Rotherham 3.6, Crawley 4.0.
Our fair price for over 7.5 corners is 21/20 (49%) and under 7.5 is Evs (51%).
Bookmaker corners prices are checked once, the day before kick-off, and will appear here.
Match preview
Rotherham United are 22nd in League Two with 12 points from 14 games, and come into this struggling for results, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5. Crawley Town are 24th on 9 points and in mixed form (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5).
At home, Rotherham United score 1.9 and concede 2.1 a game. On the road, Crawley Town score 1.2 and concede 1.5.
On expected goals, Rotherham United create 1.29 and allow 1.37 a game; Crawley Town create 1.35 and allow 1.71. Crawley Town are creating more than they're scoring, so their goals could pick up.
Our model expects about 1.6 goals to 1.7, with both teams scoring 66% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Rotherham United 43%, the draw 25%, Crawley Town 32%, and over 2.5 goals 60%.
For corners, we expect around 7.6 in total: Rotherham United about 3.6 and Crawley Town about 4.0.
Where we see value: Crawley Town to win. We make the fair price 85/40, and Virgin Bet offer 5/2, about 13% above our number. Value bets still lose often; it's about the price over many bets, not this one result.