| Bookmaker · book % | Port Vale | Draw | Accrington |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet 106.7% | 5/6 | 5/2 | 3/1 |
| Coral 106.2% | 10/11 | 5/2 | 11/4 |
| Ladbrokes 106.2% | 10/11 | 5/2 | 11/4 |
| Betfair Sportsbook 105.7% | Evs | 12/5 | 11/4 |
| Unibet 106.1% | Evs | 12/5 | 11/4 |
| Paddy Power 107.4% | 10/11 | 12/5 | 11/4 |
| Betfred 108.5% | 10/11 | 12/5 | 13/5 |
| Betway 108.1% | Evs | 9/4 | 13/5 |
| Grosvenor Sport 111.0% | 4/5 | 12/5 | 3/1 |
| William Hill 108.5% | Evs | 9/4 | 13/5 |
| Sky Bet 109.4% | 10/11 | 9/4 | 13/5 |
| LeoVegas 109.4% | 10/11 | 9/4 | 13/5 |
| LiveScore Bet 111.7% | 4/5 | 12/5 | 11/4 |
| 888sport 109.8% | 10/11 | 9/4 | 13/5 |
| Casumo 110.2% | 10/11 | 9/4 | 5/2 |
| BoyleSports 111.3% | 10/11 | 85/40 | 13/5 |
| BetVictor 112.4% | 5/6 | 9/4 | 5/2 |
| Exchanges · price after commission not counted in best price | |||
| Smarkets 2% comm. | Evsback 2.02 · lay 2.28 | 9/4back 3.25 · lay 3.70 | 11/4back 3.75 · lay 4.30 |
| Matchbook 2% comm. | 21/20back 2.06 · lay 2.26 | 9/4back 3.25 · lay 3.70 | 11/4back 3.80 · lay 4.60 |
| Betfair ExchangePrice only 5% comm. | Evsback 2.04 · lay 2.28 | 9/4back 3.35 · lay 3.70 | 13/5back 3.80 · lay 4.10 |
| Best price | Evs Unibet | 5/2 Coral | 3/1 Virgin Bet |
| Our fair price | 21/2049% chanceValue +0% | 13/528% chanceValue +0% | 16/524% chanceValue +0% |
| Bookmaker · book % | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| William Hill 107.1% | Evs | 8/11 |
| Grosvenor Sport 107.7% | 10/11 | 4/5 |
| LeoVegas 109.3% | Evs | 8/11 |
| Exchanges · price after commission not counted in best price | ||
| Matchbook 2% comm. | 11/10back 2.10 | 8/11back 1.75 |
| Best price | Evs William Hill | 4/5 Grosvenor Sport |
| Our fair price | 6/545% chanceValue +0% | 5/655% chanceValue +0% |
We expect about 9.3 corners: Port Vale 4.7, Accrington 4.6.
Our fair price for over 9.5 corners is 6/5 (45%) and under 9.5 is 5/6 (55%).
Bookmaker corners prices are checked once, the day before kick-off, and will appear here.
Match preview
Port Vale are 19th in League Two with 15 points from 12 games, and come into this in good form, with 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats in their last 5. Accrington Stanley are 9th on 19 points and in mixed form (2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5).
At home, Port Vale score 1.3 and concede 0.5 a game. On the road, Accrington Stanley score 1.4 and concede 1.3.
On expected goals, Port Vale create 1.30 and allow 1.02 a game; Accrington Stanley create 1.42 and allow 1.14. Port Vale are creating more than they're scoring, so their goals could pick up. Accrington Stanley are scoring more than their chances suggest, which tends not to last.
Our model expects about 1.5 goals to 0.9, with both teams scoring 47% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Port Vale 49%, the draw 28%, Accrington Stanley 24%, and over 2.5 goals 45%.
For corners, we expect around 9.3 in total: Port Vale about 4.7 and Accrington Stanley about 4.6.
Our view: the best prices are close to our fair odds, so we don't see standout value. The nearest is Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 against our 5/6.