| Bookmaker · book % | Swindon | Draw | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coral 106.1% | 9/4 | 11/4 | 21/20 |
| Unibet 106.2% | 9/4 | 11/4 | 21/20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook 107.0% | 9/4 | 11/4 | Evs |
| Betway 107.9% | 9/4 | 11/4 | 10/11 |
| Paddy Power 107.3% | 9/4 | 11/4 | Evs |
| Ladbrokes 107.3% | 9/4 | 13/5 | 21/20 |
| Virgin Bet 108.0% | 9/4 | 5/2 | Evs |
| Betfred 108.5% | 9/4 | 13/5 | Evs |
| William Hill 108.1% | 9/4 | 5/2 | 21/20 |
| Sky Bet 109.0% | 9/4 | 13/5 | Evs |
| Casumo 109.3% | 9/4 | 5/2 | Evs |
| LeoVegas 109.5% | 85/40 | 13/5 | Evs |
| 888sport 109.4% | 9/4 | 12/5 | 21/20 |
| BoyleSports 111.3% | 85/40 | 11/4 | 10/11 |
| Grosvenor Sport 111.9% | 9/4 | 12/5 | 10/11 |
| LiveScore Bet 112.4% | 85/40 | 12/5 | 10/11 |
| BetVictor 114.6% | 2/1 | 13/5 | 5/6 |
| Exchanges · price after commission not counted in best price | |||
| Smarkets 2% comm. | 9/4back 3.30 · lay 3.95 | 11/4back 3.80 · lay 4.40 | Evsback 1.98 · lay 2.14 |
| Matchbook 2% comm. | 12/5back 3.45 · lay 3.85 | 11/4back 3.80 · lay 4.40 | Evsback 1.99 · lay 2.16 |
| Betfair ExchangePrice only 5% comm. | 12/5back 3.45 · lay 3.90 | 13/5back 3.80 · lay 4.30 | Evsback 2.02 · lay 2.14 |
| Best price | 9/4 Betway | 11/4 Betway | 21/20 Unibet |
| Our fair price | 2/134% chanceValue +12% | 3/126% chanceValue +0% | 6/440% chanceValue +0% |
| Bookmaker · book % | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| William Hill 107.2% | 4/7 | 5/4 |
| Grosvenor Sport 107.7% | 8/13 | 11/10 |
| LeoVegas 109.1% | 4/7 | 6/5 |
| Exchanges · price after commission not counted in best price | ||
| Matchbook 2% comm. | 8/13back 1.63 | 5/4back 2.32 |
| Best price | 8/13 Grosvenor Sport | 5/4 William Hill |
| Our fair price | 8/1158% chanceValue +0% | 11/842% chanceValue +0% |
We expect about 11.3 corners: Swindon 5.4, Grimsby 5.9.
Our fair price for over 11.5 corners is 6/5 (46%) and under 11.5 is 5/6 (54%).
Bookmaker corners prices are checked once, the day before kick-off, and will appear here.
Match preview
Swindon Town are 13th in League Two with 19 points from 14 games, and come into this in mixed form, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in their last 5. Grimsby Town are 6th on 20 points and in mixed form (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5).
At home, Swindon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.0 a game. On the road, Grimsby Town score 1.6 and concede 1.4.
On expected goals, Swindon Town create 1.26 and allow 1.62 a game; Grimsby Town create 2.02 and allow 1.24. Grimsby Town are creating more than they're scoring, so their goals could pick up.
They last met on 25 April 2026, finishing Grimsby 4–0 Swindon.
Our model expects about 1.6 goals to 1.4, with both teams scoring 60% of the time. Weighing that against the bookmakers' own prices, our fair chances are Swindon Town 34%, the draw 26%, Grimsby Town 40%, and over 2.5 goals 58%.
For corners, we expect around 11.3 in total: Swindon Town about 5.4 and Grimsby Town about 5.9.
Where we see value: Swindon Town to win. We make the fair price 2/1, and Betway offer 9/4, about 12% above our number. Value bets still lose often; it's about the price over many bets, not this one result.